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DEFENSE NUCLEAR AGENCY %\. SUBJECT: Operation Redwing Final Draft 1. While it's clear that our astute and diligent investigator could at best infer certain information from the predicted patterns in the history, it is by no means clear to me that more than fission yields could be roughly estimated. The argument that one could then obtain total yields from the predicted cloud heights is true only if one iterated on the calculations with some insight, in my opinion, because predicted cloud heights are not given in the draft. I believe, but have not verified, that ground burst assumptions were made to complete the calculations in all cases. However, if one did not already know the assumed parameters of the event (yield, HOB, fission yield) I believe calculations would not yield meaningful results. Therefore, I believe we could hope to reclaim DOE'S decision on predicted patterns. I recommend we pursue this course of action. If you agree, 2. The question of whether we (DOD) should attempt to convince DOE to declassify Pacific Test yields is not one which I believe we can profitably address. I see no hope of a successful conclusion to such a course of action, and also see no profit for us if it
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SuE?JECT: Operation Redwing Final Draft I. irihile it’s clear that our astute and diligent investigator could at beat infer certain information from the predioted patterns in the history, it is by no means clear to me that more than fission yields could be roughly estirrated. The argument that one could then obtain total yields f’rom the predicted cloud heights is true only If one iterated on the calculations with some insight, in rsy opinion, because predicted cloud heights tare not given in the draft. I believe, but have not verified, that ground burst assumptions were made to complete the calculations in all cases. Efowever, if’ one did r,ot already know the assumed parameters of the event (yield, HOB, fission yield) I believe calculations srould not yield gleaningful results. Therefore, I believe we could hope to reclaim DOE’S decision on predfated patterns. fi you agree, 1 racomriend ue pursue this course of aotion. 2. The question of whether we (POD) should attempt to aonoince Dog to declassify Pacific Test yields is not one which I believe we can profitably address. I: see no hope of a successful aonoluuisn to such a course of action, and also see no profit for us if’ it were succesaf ul.