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Analysis and Assessnent Progran Division of Bi medical and Environmental Energy Research and Development AM nist ration I have read the proposal and progress reports Der zai ning to Dr. of Em?loyees of EICX Contractors'' that you sent ne re cec c ly,adI return them herewith. I Evaluation of this material is difficult, and is not made easier !(* * - by the excessively repetitious,garrulous and diffuse style in which i t is written. It is easy to understand why a study of the h-ealth of these occupational lye qo sed workers i s necessary. However, I am not convinced i.,, L:.L s ~ u d yr e quires to be prosecuted as this cont rz rt or has done over the years and as he apparently proposes t o continue. The first requirement for a scientific invest iga trs d is that he be clearly aware of what be is doins - what are the liz itz2ons which his methods impose upon the nature of the conclusions that .bz will he able to reach. Like most studies of hunans, the present oRe is ~ bser ~ ation2 1n o t experimental. That is,rh c observer has no means, If??& randomization, t o 50 percent or more de?encing upon differences in socio,-.=.Dnornic skit us, screening for he a lzh siit us, arid for other reacor.; t:iat -ed o n ' tu niz rst and radiation eff ecr s that could be identified ui th conf i5e.rte would be effects that are very large, and that accord with ex gec t ation 5-ed upon studies of populations that ha2 been emo sed tom ch larger loses, his "study" population will be truly con ? rz le with his 3or tal it y rates anon3 human populations c2- easily vav by
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The present contractor aps ears to thinli that fr *fi by exFan3ing p/ the population under stud v to every possible employee fie trill somehow solve some of thcse problems. Re will not. He is dy multiplying It seems t o me significant that, among the eve d Banford employees, there has not been a single death from leukenia; I cac. alp agree with the conclusion in Progress Report $11, that to this date, ezrXd2nce of excessive cancer mortality asong the exposed Hanford e n ? loFz is unconvincing. The difficulty faced by the investigators is tF.,lt~ &ev arc ztt223ting to study persons who had verp snall doses not very mu% above bscknrcand. 'Exposures t o environmental car cino een s other than9 - r q are unkno:ci, and late radiation effects in icm tells 3s thar if any effelrtls occx iz this effort in the study of "longe.Jity", which is affected a host of o:her cardiovascular disease, from kidney disease, from alc dml is m, etc. Tney should devote less effort to multiplying the nuEber 05 contractors whose employees are to be studied and concentrate on the gr r ; z ; s IMV being studied. In particular,with the basic study not really well spr up asyet(apart LLO ~fianford) diversion of effort to workers employed 551 plutonium Drocessing would be a mistake. t o do than they can accozlplish ccmfortably. It should be noted tSat the work has ap z arent lp %en dote very careUnder these circumstances i t is Fdve to %=azine This Lzplles no jud pent cc ming the de sir a3ilitp fully and conscientiously. In part, the very long de- have resulted from the investigators ' determination not to rush to conch dons based on erroneous data, and for this they areto be comended, But sf rap lta neo us dedication to meticulous care and to indefinite expansion into new plants seems tome to be a recipe for e?ornous ex?ense, and no product. I hope this is helpful to you. .