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Division of Biology and Medicine U.S. Atomic Energy Commission Prior to come n ting on scientific aspects of Drs. Paulsen and Heller ' s research sponsored by the Commission under contracts AT(45- 1)-1781, and AT(45-1)-1780, I wish to thank you for the opportunity to review these projects and renew by acquaint en ce with other members ofthe review team.IfI can be of further assistance in reviewing projects,please do not hesitate to contact me. I will not outline the program as presented by these two groups tothe review team as Iam sure that you have submitted the program schedule within your trip report or the trip report of Dr. Burr. Further,I will restrict myself t o statistical aspects of the research activities as other members of the team are more capable than I to comment on radio biological aspects. Since initiation of these two contracts,I have been quite concerned, and perhaps disturbed,that statistical design and interpretation are almost entirely lacking in both projects.This is especially true for Dr.Heller ' s research and less so for that of Dr.Paulsen. When Dr.Heller ' s initial research proposal was reviewed within DMB, I suggested toDr.Paul Henshaw that a statistician be involved in the initial review. a competent biometric ian, be asked to visit Heller in Seattle and submit his comments on the need for statistical services.AtDr. Henshaw's request Dr. Russell visited with Heller and submitted a report which should be i n your files. Russell stressed the need for statistical services but as far as I know very little was done to obtain them. To the best of my knowledge biometric al aspects of the experimental designs or data interpretation were nil during this in te rium between contract initiation and the review that was held,I believe, last year. I was told that reviewers that made up this team also stressed quite strongly the need for statistical assistance, consequently exposing the dirty laundry again. NOW let us consider the rather brief biometric al history,if you like,ofDr. were rather meager in light of overall need. To the best of my knowledge the past history involves two graduate students from the School of Public Health of the who is associated with the School of Public Health through the Department of Preventive Medicine. The source of my information concerning these services is I n my judgement statistical services rendered to this project and also limited services of Professor-
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from an associate oi 3r. Paulsen ' s as well as from Proressor-. co-workers would contact a statistician prior to collecting data(confidential statement). As you know, such a procedure is highly desirable. It was quite obvious t o me in listening to Dr.Paulsen ' s presentation that the group had been sold the need for biometric al services.Further,I received the feeling that Dr.Paulsen felt he was capable of interpret a ting the reasons for the selection of various statistical tests as well as the results of these tests. It was quite obvious t o me that this was definitely over - confidence on his part as use of terminology and attempts to explain statistical procedures made it quite Heller and his associates who almost pleaded admitted their incompetence in the subject.Quite obviously a statistician will find it more pleasant to work with Dr. Heller's group rather than with th a of Dr.Paulsen.Perhaps this is an injustice on my part but experience and continual argumentation rather than placing some confidence in the judgement of the statistician. informed me that it would be highly desirable if Dr. Paulsen and his obvious that he was not competent t o do so. In their presentation both groups emphasized the extreme variability existing in their data. The existence of such variability makes it essential that a biometric ian be on the planning and analysis portions of the project. During both presentations I became aware of many portions of their research that would benefit greatly by statistical advice but at the meeting did not call these to their attention.Further,during both presentations I was losing track of the forest as a result of the trees as there was no attempt to integrate the separate projects discussed into the overall objectives of either study or in fact no attempt to integrate the two studies. It is highly desirable that both investigators present their objectives in a clear cut fashion,perhaps in some sort of hier arch al diagram. I should emphasize that only to state one i s interested in studying the affects of ionizing radiation on spermatogenesis is not satisfactory,rather more specific objectives should be presented.Neither group presented objectives anymore sophisticated than that of seeing whether or not there was an affect of ionizing radiation on various parameters of interest, relationships between the parameters or estimate the amount of effect. Confidence limits should be associated with these estimates. Both groups should be encouraged to present some measures of dispersion for the items of interest.In only a limited number of cases were such measures of dispersion presented : Heller presented ranges, which he did not realize,orat least did not express the fact, that the range was a function of sample size, and only in one project that I recall did Paulsen ' s group present a standard deviation.Paulsen even went tothe extreme of stating that a standard deviation was useless.I objected quite strongly to this statement as he was not in a position to evaluate the usefulness of the standard deviation and as far as I was concerned the statement was not true. Apparently his justification for the statement was based on the fact that he used non parametric procedures in analyzing his data. Surely one must go beyond this and study the functional Obviously statistical competence does not exist within either group but does exist in Seattle. The question arises, "How can one obtain the 'needed' statistical services for these groups?" First let me recommend that a line item for statistical services be inserted within both budgets and that this item be funded atnot more than ten percent of the total operating budget. This sum should assure more than adequate statistical services and perhaps could provide
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for limited services of a senior biometric ian on sabbatic leave as well as continual services from an advanced graduate student of biometrics.Dr. Bennett has offered to assist this group by perhaps providing graduate students funded under a U.S. Public Health Service trainee ship grant. metrical services they will,I believe,use such services.efficiently,o the l wise, assistance will probably be of the same nature as in the past.I asked Professor -if Dr. Heller had contacted him for assistance and I was told that Heller personal matters between his group and that of Paulsen ' s . on my part although it is rather common knowledge that there are some personal grievances existing.Dr. Bennett has informed meth a the is more than willing to assist Heller.In addition to contacting Bennett I telephoned for some years and he is a highly competent statistician and avery easy person t o work with. was quite willing to assist both groups and thought that some kind of arrangements could be made. I suggested, and he concur red,that the statistical consultant supplied by his group should work with both groups rather than having one person €or each group. procedure is more efficient. My suggestion is that Dr. Heller and Dr.Paulsen contact as well as Professor Bennett and see what kind of arrangements L/ can b e made and what the cost will be.\ The budgets of each group could then be paid services are obtained that the caliber of the research will suffer(ornot get better).Further the question will arise whether o r not the caliber of the research justifies the degree of current funding. It i s an old adage that the Commission arein my opinion useless or almost so. I do not believe that I f Heller and Paulsen have t o pay for bio - Perhaps reluctance on Heller ' s part to contact Bennett stems from some This is only supposition vChairman of the Biometrics Program of the University ot I n my mind such a - It i s my strong feeling that unless nothing is free " ,therefore,volunteered statistical services at no costt o11 Therefore,in summary I recommend that: funds be allocated for statistical services to cover both contracts and if statistical services are not obtained that serious consideration be given to reducing the level of support or perhaps even terminating