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Lt co: tldeJiananalyze the Pacific fallout es he h&S done the hevada, This kJ,dbeen accomplished and five copies of the latestAi?.DCreport If we csn be of any fiirthereerviceto you in this matter feel fraa t3 call upon us at my tine,
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1. In the inclosedreport I have analyzedthe falloutfrom the first shot of CASTLE Test Operation. I am amazed at the similarityof this-event with the falloutet Nevada. As a matter of fact, If the JANGLE - Fallout ldodelhad been simplyextrapolatedto the CASTLEBravo yield by a straight line extrapolation(wheredistanceis proportionalto the third power of the yield and falloutarea is proportionalto the two thirdspower of the yield) then I'm sure that the CASTLE Bravo shot would not have been fired. This is becauseall Bikini Atoll islandsand the islandsof Rongerik,Rongelap, and Bikar are clearlyin the falloutarea even when such a simple extrapolationis used. This fact is furtherbroughtout by the falloutplot preparedby the CASTLE Rad Safe organizationafter the Bravo event utilizing the A:IDCmethod of el ximationindicatedin ARDC Report C3-364l7 and its supplement. 2. A closerlook at the actual Bravo falloutbrings out the curious fact that as the yield is increased,and the height of burst is kept cons&tint,the distributionof activitywithin the atomic cloud changes. For example,in the JANGLE - Surfaceshot, analysisof the fallout shows that approximately40% of the activityresidedin the mushroomand 40% in the 80% of the falloutcomes from the stem. This leavesonly 20% of the activity in the mushroom. Since it is assumed t'nat10% of the activityis nonscavengableby the soil debris, this means that within 2d hours, 75% of the falloutis from the stem and only 5% from the mushroom. This curious shiftingof the immediatelyscavengableactivityfrom the mushroomto the the averageactivityin the stem and mushroomwas approximately5% each. increasedto 10 or 15% but the however,the activityin the stem activityof the mushroomstill re.mainedat 5%. 3. Another curiousfactor that really puzzlesae is the assumption made by many people that Bikini Atoll islandswere contaminatedby the upwind and cross-windcomponentsof the falloutfrom the first shot of CASTL I cangot find any evidenceof this. Bikini Atoll was in the downwinddi- $, 3'hatcontaminatedthe Bikini Islandswas the downwindfallout which came from lO,OOO.ftto 20,000 ft above sea level. 2 in none of the subsequentbarge shots, Curiouslyenough,u was ground zero or the lagoon or the immediatetest area in the downwindpath. I am afraid that this has % given rise to the tdsCO~ce?tion that barge(orwater) surface shots are less: contaminatingthan land surfaceshots. I feel confidentthat if the first Q shotmofCAS'TLEwere fired on the lagoon waters it would have severelyconta,minatedthe Bikini Islands. The downaindcontaminationwould have extended furtherout and coveredmore area, but the time of fallout would have been delayedby a factor of 2. klthcugha shift of wind is blamed j for the unexpectedcont&minationof Rongelapar?dRong&ik, there is no
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such FXC’~CP,mde for the Kinds ever 3ikini Atoll.__ _ It seem to ae that the excessAr:--econtarrinationof Bikini itself could have been avoided had the simple fallout plot been more clearly understood dllringthe first shot of C&TLE. ijponpost analysis, after all of the data was gathered and ereluated, I tried to determine from the fallout plots just what was the dose re cefre5 by the Bongelap natives. I am ar;lEzedto find that the integrated 48 hour dose of the Bongelap natives is over 300 roentgens. Some thought. should be given to the possibility that many of the natives did receive 300 rceatgens or higher within 48 hours and yet they did not show severe sy@o:TIs of radiation sickness, and to date there have been no reported cas+ties* I wonder if this is an error in my indirect measuresents of integratei dose, or whether our concepts of the sickness or the median 4. The excessive fallout from CASTLE Brsvo shot indicates to me that, if EaytIir:g,the SX"I;S:-III;Eestir;atesof the Strontium 90 uptake by human belogs is not exaggerated. Actually 5G:ZiJZ nay have underestisated the uptske by 8 factor of 2. This is true,unless Chicago had excessive fallout. I have written a memo to Cr. Libby.on this subject. A copy of this memo is inclosed for your reference. Dr. Budleg and Cr. sestern of your Oivision have indictitedto me that the uptake of Sr90 by the Chicago hsbies reported in Jtrusry 1954 may have been due to fallout of fission products on plants. This cscfzmination adhered to the plants externally. Subsequently, COKS ingested the plants and thus received the %90 directly. Coa milk, cheese an2 .--eatthen passed this on to the mothers. Even if this is true, it does not alter tbe fact that with a total available debris of 1.5 to 0.75 IJT of fi ssLc.3Froducts, the Chicago ba equivalent of 4 b:T of fission products by SUIiSXIiE estifpbtes. 5. I will continue to study and analyze the fallout primarily to assess its sili+&ry implications both from the defensive and offensive points of intimately to the world-Tide contszitation problem. n accordance with paragraphs
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